Should the Rays trade James Shields?

James Shields was the ace of the Rays' pitching staff during the 2011 season. He threw 249.1 innings, 11 complete games, 4 shutouts, and 225 strikeouts, all personal or Rays records. The fact that these results came following an extremely disappointing 2010 season made his success all the sweeter. However, that fact also raises questions about whether 2010 or 2011 was the "fluke" season. Many think that the Rays, ever seeking opportunities to dump payroll and pick up a few top prospects for the future, will try to shop Shields this winter at the height of his value. ESPN's Buster Olney kicked up the dust recently when he reported that the Marlins are considering making a serious run at acquiring Shields. It's certainly a possibilty, especially with the pitching depth in the minors that the Rays have in phenom Matt Moore and solid prospects Alex Cobb and Alex Torres, along with some key offensive holes at the big league level, but the real question is, should they?

Right now, given James Shields' current contract and his recent production, his possible 2012 salary of $7 million is very team friendly. The Rays love these types of contracts, and so it makes a lot of sense for them to keep him around to produce excellent numbers for relatively cheap. He's currently in the prime of his career (he turns 30 in December) and has remained healthy for most of his career, so the possibility of him breaking down shouldn't be a concern (the fact that he doesn't rely on a 96-mph fastball that could lose velocity with age also helps). He's a clubhouse leader, being the elder statesman of the rotation and one of the longest-tenured Rays. And, in my opinion, 2011 was not the fluke season. Advanced statistics such as BABIP show that he was extremely unlucky during the 2010 campaign, and the fact that part of Shields' success in 2011 had to do with an adjustment of mechanics is promising for the future. While numbers such as his outstanding complete game total will probably regress more towards the mean in the coming seasons, I expect another well-above-average performance in 2012.

However, the Rays are never one to turn down an offer they can't refuse. Remember last year's Matt Garza deal with the Cubs? In return for Garza (who was in a similar situation as Shields is with guys like Moore and Cobb, with a very talented  Jeremy Hellickson needing a rotation spot), the Rays acquired top prospects Chris Archer and Hak-Ju Lee, plus near-MLB ready talent in Brandon Guyer and Robinson Chirinos and, of course, the #LegendofSamFuld. Considering how successful that trade has turned out so far, a trade like this is certainly in question. Although the Cubs may have overpayed for Garza, the fact that Shields' trade value right now is higher than Garza's ever was indicates that the Rays could get an even better bounty in a trade. Being able to bring in top-quality talent to help the Rays' key holes in hitting and in the bullpen would be very, very hard to turn down.

At this point, I would say that unless the Rays are absolutely blown away by a trade proposal, then it is best to keep Big Game James and the production he can bring to the MLB team right now rather than hope in the promised talent of a few prospects. In order to make room for Moore or Cobb, and to fill the other holes on the team, the Rays would be better served to try and trade a guy like Jeff Niemann, perhaps in a package deal with a minor leaguer, or even BJ Upton.