Saturday, January 21, 2012

Projecting the Rays' opening day roster

With the signing of Carlos Pena yesterday, the roster seems to be just about set. There have been some talks of the Rays being interested in another back-up middle infielder, and a trade is likely to clear the log jam for the #5 starter, but at this point we can begin to see how the opening day line-up will look like.

Here are our projections based on what the Rays have now:

LINE-UP

Vs. RHP
Starters
1. Desmond Jennnings, LF
2. Ben Zobrist, 2B
3. Evan Longoria, 3B
4. Carlos Pena, 1B
5. Luke Scott, DH
6. B.J. Upton, CF
7. Matt Joyce, RF
8. Jose Molina, C
9. Reid Brignac, SS
Bench
Jose Lobaton, C
Elliot Johnson, IF
Sam Fuld, OF
Sean Rodriguez, IF

Vs. LHP
Starters
1. Desmond Jennnings, LF
2. Ben Zobrist, 2B
3. Evan Longoria, 3B
4. Carlos Pena, 1B
5. Luke Scott, DH
6. B.J. Upton, CF
7. Matt Joyce, RF
8. Jose Molina, C
9. Sean Rodriguez, SS
Bench
Jose Lobaton, C
Elliot Johnson, IF
Sam Fuld, OF
Reid Brignac, IF

Notes:
Joe Maddon will continue to platoon SS unless Reid or Sean begin to stand out. Joyce will probably be platooned as well, but for now he gets the shot to play everyday. Elliot Johnson remains as a back-up without options, but I wouldn't be surprising if he was replaced by Russ Canzler, Will Rhymes or another free agent/spring training invite. For now, Fuld beats out Brandon Guyer for the 4th OF spot, because he's the #Legend and his speed and defense will be vital late in games. Guyer may very well take the spot as he's a righty, but he still has options, unlike Fuld.

STARTING ROTATION
1. James Shields, RHP
2. David Price, LHP
3. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP
4. Matt Moore, LHP
5. Jeff Niemann, RHP

Notes:
Complete Game James gets rewarded for his fantastic season with another opening-day start. Price may be even better than the last two years though, if he can bring in an above-average change-up. ROY Hellickson looks to have another strong year, and hopefully he can get that K/9 up. A full year of Matt Moore is bound to be exciting, as he may have the most raw talent and polish out of any of the starters. Niemann gets the #5 spot as Wade Davis is the most valuable trade bait and thus most likely to be dealt. Alex Cobb and Alex Torres will serve as insurance in Durham.

BULLPEN
Mid. Brandon Gomes, RHP
Mid. Jake McGee, LHP
Mid. Fernando Rodney, RHP
LOOGY. J.P. Howell, LHP
ROOGY/Groundball. Burke Badenhop, RHP
SU. Joel Peralta, RHP
CL. Kyle Farnsworth, RHP

Notes:
There is no actual "long relief" slot, but it will be more of a platoon as Gomes has gone 3+ innings several times, and McGee is a former starter who can work a few himself. Badenhop, a sidearm pitcher, is good against righties and has good ground ball numbers for when that double play is needed. J.P. "The Dude" Howell will hope to right the ship after a horrible 2011 with a full healthy offseason, but even with his struggles last year he was still pretty good against lefties, so he will be slotted in that role. Rodney had his struggles the last few years himself, but he's a former closer and can be used in higher-leverage situations. Finally, the 1-2 punch of Peralta and Farnsworth looks to have the same success as last year.

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